FORECASTING OF IMPORTS AND EXPORTS IN PAKISTAN: A COMPARISON OF SOME TIME SERIES METHODOLOGY

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FORECASTING OF IMPORTS AND EXPORTS IN PAKISTAN: A COMPARISON OF SOME TIME SERIES METHODOLOGY

Author(s) : Fareeha Nosheen & Wajiha Nasir

Abstract:
The main objective of this study is to estimate a significant model to forecast Pakistan’s yearly economic variables of imports and exports. The data have been collected from the World Bank website ranging from 1962 to 2020. Imports and Exports of Pakistan are observed and analyzed by using time series analysis techniques by utilizing the Box-Jenkins methodology and Vector autoregressive model through Eviews-10 software. These methods were used for analysis, estimation, and forecasting purposes. The empirical analysis involved using the ADF (Augmented Dickey-Fuller) unit root test to check the stationary of the data. We used multivariate and univariate time series models. Before forecasting we check the correlation among the variables and apply the VAR model. it checks the forecasting accuracy by using RMSE, and MAE. We conclude that VAR model is the best technique for the forecasting of imports and exports.