IS EQUITY FUND PERFORMANCE PREDICTABLE? A STUDY ON PAKISTANI EQUITY FUNDS USING DYNAMIC PANEL DATA MODEL

Author(s) : Mubashar Tanveer

Abstract:

The motive of present paper was to test the predictability of equity fund performance on the basis of fund variables. In this respect, five equity fund variables were selected namely past fund performance, flow, expense ratio, age and size. The data of seventeen equity funds for the time period June 2010 to June 2017 was collected. Moreover, Arellano and Bond (1991) dynamic panel data approach was employed to examine the predictability of fund performance. Results indicated significant negative influence of past fund performance and expense ratio on future performance of equity funds, however, no significant influence of past fund flow, age and size on future performance of equity funds was found. Overall results suggest that investors can predict future performance of equity funds on the basis of past performance and expense ratio. Moreover, predictability of performance can help investors in making optimal investment decisions. This study is novel in its nature as it examined the predictability of Pakistani equity fund performance by using dynamic panel data approach. Hence the research can be extended in other types of fund operating in Pakistan.